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There’s a story making the rounds about a guy who won $375,000.00 on a World Series bet of $250. Apparently, he bet on the Cardinals to win it all back in September, when the Cards were 10 games out of placing. The odds given were 999 to 1 against that happening.

It’s tough when you are in sports arbitrage to read these things, even though you know that mathematically, the bet wasn’t justified. Imagine getting that much money in one huge chunk — fantastic. For the arb player though, that’s poison. We make our percentages at the single digit level and try to eliminate the risk. Slow and steady wins the day. But it’s still hard when you see something like that. The remedy is to remember that the casinos didn’t lose here. That big win was offset by many, many losses from other players.

What is just as interesting for me is a little snippet mentioned in the Yahoo News story. They mention that the odds were changed the day after the bet was made. They were changed by Mr. Jay Rood, an MGM vice president (the casino, not the movie company). And, more importantly, that he sets the odds for 12 Las Vegas sports books.

Why is that a big deal? Well, in sports arbitrage, I depend on different odds from different books to make a living. As more and more bookmakers simply use the same service (or person) to set odds, ti becomes impossible to find the differences that make sports arbitrage work.

From a bookmaker’s point of view, unless they want to attract more business by shading the odds one way or another, they can just sign up for a service that sets the odds for them. It’s as simple as having a subscription and the software does the rest. This whole deal is going to kill the sports arbitrage business in my opinion.

That’s primarily why arbitrage wouldn’t work with physical bets here in Las Vegas. You couldn’t find enough difference in the odds to overcome the fees you pay for making a bet in the first place.

On the other hand, I was talking to someone about a new type of arbitrage that might work here in Sparkle City. The idea is to pick an event that is a long way off and make smallish bets on the long-odds teams/players (much like the 999 to 1 on the Cardinals). Then, as the odds change for the worse (as some will do) you sell your bet slip for a profit.

So, for instance, you get the Eagles at 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, early in the season. If they win a few games, the odds drop to 10 to 1 or so (just making up numbers). A new bettor would be better off buying your ticket (30 to 1) and pay you extra for the privilege — as long as they are still making a profit overall.

I’m not sure how this will work in practice, and I’m a bit suspicious right now, but it may have potential. The nice thing is that it doesn’t depend on whether a team wins or loses the final event. By that time, you are out of the game. What I don’t know yet is how odds might fall even further– in which case you would lose the opportunity to sell the bet. And I’m not sure how and who you would sell to in practice, although that would be internet based I suppose. Finally, I don’t know if it is legal.

You may have heard that sportsbooks ban people just for winning. This rumor has created the impression that you can’t earn profits without getting booted.

The reality, though, is that bookmakers don’t ban you simply for winning.

Instead, they target specific types of gamblers and will either limit their max bets or ban them.

Arbitrage bettors are one of the most common groups that are hunted by sportsbooks. These types of gamblers are often banned or limited just for winning consistently.

But they don’t get treated differently by bookmakers solely because they’re successful. Instead, they gamble in a certain way that costs sportsbooks money.

I’m going to discuss more on how arbitrage (a.k.a. arbing) betting works and if you can successfully pull it off without getting caught.

What Is Arbitrage Betting?

You likely know that it’s foolish to wager on all of the outcomes in a given game with the same bookmaker. After all, you’re guaranteed to lose money when the “juice” (house commission) is taken into account.

However, arbitrage betting allows you to profit from these situations.

Arbing refers to an event where you can make a guaranteed profit by wagering on all outcomes in a given match.

But two things must happen in order for this strategy to work:

• Bookmakers need to differ enough on odds for the different outcomes.
• You need to wager on each outcome at different sportsbooks.

Here’s an example of arbitrage betting in action:

• New England Patriots -180
• Cleveland Browns +195
• You bet $100 on the Patriots. You wager $52.75 on the Browns.
• Your total stake is $152.75. You’ll win $155.60 on either side.
• You’re guaranteed a $2.85 profit.

Most people who stumble upon arbing think they’re geniuses. However, this concept has been around for decades.

Bookmakers are sometimes able to tell when you’re arbing, but it can take them a while to catch on. Assuming you can continue arbing without being caught, then you can make decent profits.

Arbitrage Betting Is Difficult Without Any Aid

Arbing seems like a simple enough concept. You can even use an online calculator to make the process simpler.

However, the biggest roadblock is that you need to actually find these situations.

After all, bookmakers don’t put blinking cursors next to arbitrage opportunities.

You’ll find it very difficult to manually watch lines at various bookmakers and jump on them at the right time.

Furthermore, you also have to run numbers in the calculator to ensure you can profit from these situations.

While you can manually pull off arbitrage betting, you’ll have a much easier time when using sports betting software. These programs do all of the work for you by monitoring various online sportsbooks and alerting you to arbing chances.

Tips for Successful Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage betting is a simple enough concept to where you don’t have to rack your brain over the matter.

However, you’ll need to put more effort into arbing than just looking over sportsbooks and running numbers through an online tool. That said, here are some tips for how you can become a better arber.

Use Tools to Find Arbitrage Opportunities

Again, sports betting software can boost your chances of successfully arbing. You can find plenty of quality programs across the internet that track this information and allow you to win more often.

The key downside, though, is that you’ll have to pay for these programs.

Many of them are available on a subscription basis and can cost over $150 per year.

You need to consider how serious you are about sports betting before pouring money into one of these tools. Nevertheless, you should at least consider software if you want to maximize your arbitrage opportunities.

Have a Betting Exchange Account

A betting exchange matches up gamblers who want to wager for and against outcomes. Those who are betting against an outcome are considered the bookmaker.

Betting exchanges earn their money by collecting small commissions (e.g. 2%), which usually come from the winning side.

Exchanges profit regardless of who wins a wager, so they don’t have to worry about arbitrage bettors.

You should definitely consider opening an account at a betting exchange if you’re going to arb. You can place a wager on one outcome at a traditional sportsbook and make your other bet at the exchange.

You can still potentially be banned at the sportsbook in this situation. But at least you don’t have to fear getting booted from an exchange.

Round Up Your Bets

Arbitrage betting calculators show how much you should wager in order to make a guaranteed profit.

This bet might be good from a profit standpoint. However, it’s going to stick out like a sore thumb if a bookmaker decides to review your account.

They may see a history of weird-looking wagers, then become convinced that you’re only winning because of arbing. You can avoid this problem by rounding up your bets and making them look more natural.

You’ll unfortunately sacrifice some profits by doing so. But the good news is that you have less chance of being caught by bookmakers.

Use a VPN

As you may know, a virtual private network (VPN) masks your IP address when visiting websites. You can make your IP address look like it’s in London, for example, when you’re really in New York.

Some bettors use VPNs to hide their location so they can bet at their favorite sportsbooks.

You can work VPNs into your arbitrage betting strategy. Assuming you get banned from a bookmaker, you can simply make a new account using a VPN to disguise your location.

Make a Bad Bet or Two

Another way that bookmakers find arbitrage bettors is by looking at their wagers. If a sportsbook sees that a gambler only wagers on profitable opportunities, then they’ll have another piece of critical info.

But you can fool bookmakers occasionally by placing a bad bet.

Parlay bets, especially those with four teams or more, are some of the worst wagers in sports betting. A bookmaker is less likely to believe you’re a highly skilled gambler when you’re placing these bad wagers.

Of course, you have to walk the fine line between making convincing parlay bets and eating into your profits. Therefore, you don’t want to get carried away with bad wagers and face too much negative expected value (-EV).

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Why Do Bookmakers Hate Arbitrage Bettors?

Arbitrage betting isn’t illegal by any means. It’s not like paying off a professional athlete to win a huge sports bet.

However, sportsbooks certainly don’t welcome arbers. They stand to lose money by allowing this type of gambling.

Arbitrage bettors are either making their profit from one sportsbook or another.

If enough arbitrage gamblers are active, then the industry as a whole will lose more money.

As mentioned before, sportsbooks don’t necessarily go after somebody just because they’re winning. But they’ll take any steps necessary to punish somebody who repeatedly profits off of them.

When Do Sportsbooks Ban You for Arbitrage Betting?

If a sportsbook catches you arbing, they’ll most likely close your account. They’ll also have your information on file and be able to prevent you from creating another account (unless you’re using a VPN).

Bookmakers are careful to identify an arbitrage gambler with a high degree of confidence before immediately banning them. After all, they don’t want to get rid of good customers.

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Sometimes they don’t even go as far as to ban you. Instead, they either limit your maximum wagers or block you from certain markets.

If you’re making all of your money off the NFL, for example, then you may be barred from wagering on pro football. You should read an online sportsbook’s terms and conditions to see how they treat the matter.

Many will mention something about how their services are only for “recreational bettors.” This snippet is all they need to ban or limit arbers.

Conclusion

Should you still consider arbitrage betting?

Becoming an expert handicapper who’s capable of beating sportsbooks on a consistent basis is very difficult.

This high degree of difficulty is part of what makes arbitrage betting so intriguing.

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Arbing presents a simpler way to win with sports gambling. It merely requires you to find opportunities rather than make educated guesses based on lots of research and experience.

Of course, arbing isn’t a walk in the park either. You still need to put the work into finding opportunities and quickly taking advantage before lines shift.

Nevertheless, you can quickly become a solid arber with the right skills.

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Some of the tips that are crucial to successful arbing include:

• Using an arbitrage calculator
• Opening a betting exchange account
• Rounding up bet sizes
• Using a VPN (if banned)
• Making -EV bets once in a while

Sportsbooks have a tough task in finding arbitrage bettors. Therefore, you can potentially get away with this strategy for a long time.

However, you also have to be okay with grinding out steady profits.

Arbing doesn’t typically offer large profits, even with big wagers involved.

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You must deal with the chance that you’ll be limited or banned from online bookmakers as well. Even when you do everything right, you may still get caught by one or more sportsbooks. Nevertheless, arbing is definitely worth trying if you’re serious about sports betting profits.